climate-uk
Not The Long-Range Forecast
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Text Box: Forecast for April 2008: RATHER COLD ESPECIALLY MID-MONTH; WET IN THE EAST AND SOUTH The predicted mean monthly sea-level pressure chart for April shows a tendency for NE-ly winds with a slight anticyclonic bias. However, the weakness of the overall pattern suggests an episodic month with short periods of different weather types. An anticyclonic spell during the first week should give way to cyclonic and NE-ly types during the middle part of the month, but anticyclonic conditions are likely to return late in the month. Some warm days can be expected, chiefly early and late, but for much of the rest of April the weather will be rather cold. Taking the month as a whole, mean max temp is predicted to be slightly below the long-term average, and mean min temp near to the average. Frosty nights are most likely in the 2nd and 3rd weeks. Rain (including melted snow) is forecast to range from above average in eastern, central and southern England to below average in north and west Scotland, northwest England and north Wales, and Northern Ireland. Sig-nificant snow is possible during the middle fortnight, mainly over upland areas in the east and north of the UK. Sunshine totals are expected to range from above normal in northern and western regions of the UK, to somewhat below normal in eastern and southern regions. Anomalies: CET -0.5 degC E&W rain 110% E&W sun 85% (c) Philip Eden 080329
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Text Box: Forecast for mid-March to mid-April 2008: OFTEN RATHER COLD; QUITE WET AND DULL TOO Further NW-ly or N-ly episodes can be expected throughout the period, but especially during the second half of March. Mean pressure over the British Isles is forecast to be below the seasonal normal with cyclonic periods dominant; one or two brief anticyclonic interludes are possible -- most likely during early-April. The third week of March is expected to be consistently cold. During the remainder of the forecast period rather cold and rather warm spells are likely to alternate, resulting in mean max temps for the 30-day period being rather below the long-term average. With frequent cloudy skies, though, mean min temps for the entire period will probably be close to the average. Isolated very warm days are most likely to occur during early-April. Although there will be occasional dry interludes, rain is expected to fall frequently in all parts of the UK, and the 30-day period is therefore likely to be wetter than average in most regions. Monthly totals are predicted to range from much above normal in eastern Scotland and northeast England to near normal in southwest England and south Wales. Significant snowfall is probable, chiefly in northern and eastern regions. Sunshine duration is forecast to be below the long-term average except in southwest England and south Wales, and may be much below in eastern Scotland and northeast England. Anomalies: CET -0.8 degC E&W rain 120% E&W sun 85% (c) Philip Eden 080313
Text Box: Forecast for March 2008: CHANGEABLE; RATHER COLD AT TIMES FIRST HALF THEN MILDER March is expected to be a mobile month, with winds from the westerly half of the compass blowing more frequently than usual. Northwesterlies will tend to dominate during the first part of the month, whereas south-westerlies will be more noticeable during mid- and late-March. As far as pressure anomaly is concerned, the month should be approximately neutral, with a moderate anticyclonic bias in southern Britain and a moderate cyclonic bias in northern Britain. With repeated northwesterly outbreaks, there will probably be a good deal of cold weather during the first part of the month, though with brief milder interludes, and the cold is likely to be more noticeable in Scotland than elsewhere. During the middle and latter parts of March, above-average temperatures are expected to dominate, with only brief interruptions. Mean monthly temperature is forecast to be generally above the long-term average, but near average in northern Scotland. Rain (including melted snow) is predicted to range from above normal in all northern and western parts of the UK to near normal elsewhere. Some significant snowfalls can be expected during the first week or so, especially in northern and eastern regions. Sunshine totals will probably range from below normal in northern and western parts of the UK to near or slightly above normal in eastern and southern regions. Anomalies: CET +1.0 degC E&W rain 105% E&W sun 100% (c) Philip Eden 080227
Text Box: Forecast for mid-Feb to mid-Mar 2008: OFTEN ANTICYCLONIC BUT LESS SETTLED MID-PERIOD High pressure will probably be the dominant feature between mid-Feb and mid-March, either close to the UK or over the near-continent. However, an unsettled episode are indicated during the middle fortnight. Overall, though, this forecast period is likely to be drier and sunnier than normal with above-average temperature. During the first week there will be several rather cold days with widespread and locally severe frost at night. One or two further short cold spells are likely with widespread frost, but these will be more than offset by quite lengthy mild interludes, and a few exceptionally mild days are possible. Overall, mean maximum temperature is predicted to be above the long-term average in all regions, but mean minimum temperature is likely to range from above normal in northern and western regions to near normal in the south and east. The short unsettled spells during the middle of the period will contribute most of the rain, and some large amounts can be expected over upland regions in the west and north – the western highlands, the Lake District and Snowdonia. Over the whole period, rainfall is forecast to range from somewhat above normal in northern and western Scotland to below or well-below normal in eastern, central and southern regions. Sunshine duration should be above, or well above, the long-term mean in most parts of the country, but northern and western Scotland will probably have sunshine aggregates rather below the average. Anomalies: CET +1.2 degC E&W rain 70% E&W sun 125% (c) Philip Eden 080214
Text Box: Forecast for mid-Jan to mid-Feb 2008: MILD WET START THEN DRY WITH VARIABLE TEMPS The present cyclonic/southwesterly spell will continue for a further five days. For the remainder of the forecast period there will probably be a repeated tendency for high pressure to develop over eastern or northeastern Europe, resulting in frequent southerly, southeasterly and easterly winds over the British Isles. Any Atlantic incursions after Jan 21 are likely to be short-lived. The source region for the air reaching the UK will vary between eastern and southern Europe giving alternating periods of mild and cold weather. Some days during the first week will be very mild, largely offsetting the preponderance of rather cold days during the remainder of the forecast period. Over the next thirty days, mean maximum temperatures are expected to be slightly below the 1971-2000 average, while mean minimum temperatures will probably be close to the average. Frosty nights are likely to occur with about average frequency. Further heavy rainfall during the first five days will probably contribute disproportionately to the total rainfall for the forecast period, and lengthy dry periods can be expected after Jan 21. Overall, rainfall is forecast to be slightly below normal in most regions of the UK. Further substantial snowfall is likely in the Scottish highlands during the first five days; one or two further snowfalls are possible later in the period. Sunshine duration is expected to range from above normal around southern and western coasts to below normal in the Midlands and e England where many days will be characterised by low stratus, mist and fog. Anomalies: CET +0.2 degC E&W rain 90% E&W sun 90% (c) Philip Eden 080114
Text Box: Forecast for January 2008: COLD SPELLS EARLY AND LATE; MILDER SECOND AND THIRD WEEKS This month will be rather less ‘westerly’ than many recent Januarys, and although occasional periods of southwesterly or westerly winds can be expected, they are not likely to be long-lived. There will probably also be some episodes of anticylonic, southeasterly, and cyclonic types during the course of the month. As far as temperatures are concerned, mild and cold periods will alternate, with a short-lived cold spell during the first week, and a well-signalled likelihood of a longer cold period during the last 5-10 days. Overall, mean temperature is expected to be somewhat below the long-term average except in the N and W of Scotland. Although some notably wet episodes are indicated, these should be relatively brief, with dry periods between. Over the entire month, rainfall should range from below normal in northern and northwestern parts of the UK to above normal in southwest England and south Wales. Although the frequency of snowfall should be close to the long-term normal, one or two heavy falls are likely, even in southern Britain. Sunshine totals are predicted to be close to or rather below the long-term average in most parts of the UK with lowest totals in eastern and central England, but sunshine duration will probably be rather above average in the north and west of Scotland. Anomalies: CET -0.7 degC E&W rain 88% E&W sun 85% (c) Philip Eden 071229