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climate-uk |
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Not The Long-Range Forecast |
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Actual and forecast charts can be found
here |
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Forecast for March 2010: COLD FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH, BUT DRY AND
SUNNY IN THE WEST |
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this month |
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March is predicted to be a mostly ‘blocked’
month with winds from an easterly quarter |
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last month |
blowing
more frequently than usual. Westerlies will probably be conspicuous by
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absence,
although they may return for a time late in the month. Although occasional
cyclonic |
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earlier months |
episodes can be expected, much of the period
is likely to be anticyclonic. |
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flow
indices |
Both mean maximum and mean minimum
temperature are forecast to be below or much |
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below
the long-term average. Night frost, severe at times, is forecast to occur
more |
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weather-uk |
frequently
than usual. There will probably be one or two milder intervals, but these are
likely |
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to be short-lived. |
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Rainfall (including melted snow) is expected
to be below or much below the long-term |
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average
in most regions of the UK, but near to or somewhat above the average in
southern |
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England
and south Wales. Further significant snowfall is likely in many parts of the
country, |
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although the advancing season suggests that
snow on the ground is unlikely to be long- |
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lived except in upland areas. |
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Sunshine duration is predicted to range from
near or somewhat below normal in eastern |
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districts to above or well above average in
western parts of the country. |
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Anomalies:
CET -1.8 E&W rain 95%
E&W sun 105% ©
Philip Eden 100226 |
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Forecast for mid-Feb to mid-Mar 2010: OFTEN RATHER COLD; WET LATE-FEB; DRY
EARLY-MAR |
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Further
occasional northerly and/or easterly outbreaks are expected during the next
four |
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weeks,
maintaining the generally rather cold weather. Cyclonic types will dominate
during |
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the
remainder of February, but a trend back towards anticyclonic conditions is
indicated |
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during the first half of March. |
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Mean
daytime maximum temperature is predicted to be rather below the long-term
average |
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in
most parts of the UK, although some northern and western districts will
probably end up |
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close
to the normal. The distribution of mean overnight minimum temperature will be
similar. |
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Although
this forecast period is predicted to be persistently rather cold, a return of
the |
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prolonged
intense cold (as in December and January) is not indicated. The best chance
of |
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a few mild days is during the last week of
February, and again towards the middle of March. |
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Rainfall
(including snowfall) during the period mid-February to mid-March is predicted
to be |
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below
normal in most parts of the UK, but near to or rather above normal in some
southern |
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parts
of England and Wales. The bulk of the rain (and snow) will probably come
during the |
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second
half of February, with generally drier conditions pertaining during the first
half of |
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March. |
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Sunshine
totals for 30-day period are forecast to be near average in most parts of the
UK, |
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but rather below average in eastern and
central parts of both Scotland and England. |
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Anomalies:
CET -0.8 E&W rain 92%
E&W sun 83% ©
Philip Eden 100213 |
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Forecast for February 2010: COLD AT TIMES TILL AFTER MID-MONTH THEN
WARMER |
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Easterly and southerly types are expected to dominate for
much of February, bringing |
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periods
of cold weather separated by brief milder interludes. If anything, the cold
periods |
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are
most likely during the early and middle parts of the month, while occasional
milder days |
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are
more probable towards the end of the month. Lengthy dry spells can be
expected, |
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although occasional heavy falls of rain/snow
are indicated, chiefly in the west and south. |
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Both mean maximum and mean minimum temperature
are forecast to be below the long- |
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term
mean. Night frost is likely to occur frequently, especially during the first
three weeks, |
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and may be severe at times, but the cold
weather is not expected to be as severe nor as |
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long-lasting
as the early-January spell. Occasional milder days can be expected at any
time |
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during the month, but a significantly milder
spell is most likely during the last week. |
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Rainfall
(including melted snow) is predicted to be somewhat below the 1971-2000 mean
in |
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most
parts of the country, with the greatest deficits likely in northern and
central districts. |
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Precipitation
totals will probably be near to or somewhat above the average in some |
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southern and western parts of the UK. |
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Sunshine
will probably be above the long-term average in most parts of the UK, though
it |
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will
be close to the average in some eastern and southern areas. The largest
excess is |
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indicated for northern Scotland. |
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Anomalies:
CET -1.6 E&W rain 80%
E&W sun 110% ©
Philip Eden 100129 |
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Forecast for mid-Jan to mid-Feb 2010: VARIABLE & RATHER COLD; WINTRY AT TURN
OF MONTH |
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The
present spell of milder but rather changeable weather is expected to give way
to a |
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colder period lasting between 5 and 10 days
around the turn of the month. A further brief . |
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spell
of cyclonic/southerly weather is likely to follow, but a lengthy anticyclonic
period during |
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the first half of February should bring drier
conditions to all regions. |
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Mean
maximum temperature for the period mid-January to mid-February is likely to
be near |
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or
slightly below average in all parts of the UK. The distribution of mean
minimum |
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temperature
should be similar. Temperatures are expected to fluctuate widely during
the |
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coming
30-day period with some cold or very cold days mid-period, but a recurrence
of the |
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exceptionally cold and wintry weather of
early-January is not indicated. |
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Rainfall
during the next four weeks is predicted to be near or rather above average in
the |
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southern
half of the UK, but generally below average in other regions. Broadly
speaking, the |
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second half of January will probably be wetter
than the first half of February. |
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Sunshine
is expected to be above average generally, but near or slightly below
average |
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in some parts of southern and central England. |
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Anomalies:
CET -0.5 E&W rain 105%
E&W sun 100% ©
Philip Eden 100113 |
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Forecast for January 2010: COLD WINTRY FIRST HALF; MILDER SPELL
LATER |
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A
long cold spell is indicated for the first half of the month, and although
pressure is |
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expected
to be quite high for much of this period, further snow is likely at times in
many |
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parts
of the country. A milder episode is probable during the second half of
January |
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although cold weather may well return at the
month’s end. |
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Both mean maximum and mean minimum temperature
are forecast to be below the long- |
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term
mean. The first half is likely to be significantly colder than the second
half with frequent |
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and
often severe overnight frosts, while daytime temperatures will probably
remain close to |
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or
below zero over a wide area on some days. After mid-month, the temperature
is |
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expected
to fluctuate widely, with some very mild days and nights, but also the
likelihood of |
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cold weather returning around the end of the
month. |
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Rainfall
(including melted snow) is predicted to be somewhat below the 1971-2000 mean
in |
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most parts of the country, with the greatest
deficits likely in western Scotland and northwest |
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England.
Scattered locations in eastern and southern England will probably have
rainfall |
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close
to or slightly above the average. Further substantial snowfall is indicated
during the |
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first two weeks, and perhaps again at the end
of the month. |
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Sunshine
will probably be above the long-term average in most parts of the UK, though
it |
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will
be close to the average in some eastern and southern districts. Greatest
excesses are |
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likely to occur in the west and north of
Scotland. |
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Anomalies:
CET -2.2 E&W rain 90%
E&W sun 120% ©
Philip Eden 091229 |
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Forecast for mid-Dec to mid-Jan 2009-10: OFTEN VERY COLD, BUT
MILDER AROUND CHRISTMAS |
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The
present cold spell is expected to intensify for about a week before relaxing,
and there |
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will
probably be a period of mild and unsettled weather during the last week of
December, |
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perhaps
lasting into the opening days of January. The first half of January is
expected to |
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bring
an anticyclonic spell with an easterly or northerly bias, resulting in a
return of cold, |
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wintry weather for a time. |
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Temperatures
are expected to fluctuate sharply during the next four weeks as mild
SW-lies |
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alternate
with colder easterlies and northerlies, and the coldest weather is most
likely to |
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occur
during the third week of December and again in early-January. Taking the 30-day |
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period
as a whole, both mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures are predicted
to |
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be
generally below normal, the deficit greatest in southern and central England,
and least in |
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the north and west of Scotland. |
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Rainfall
during the next thirty days is predicted to be generally below normal, except
in |
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southern
England and south Wales where it will probably be close to or somewhat
above |
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the
long-term average. Significant snowfalls are likely during the cold episodes:
most likely |
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in the third week of December and rather less
likely in early-January. |
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Sunshine
duration is expected to range from near normal in eastern districts to
above |
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normal (locally much above) in western parts of
the country. |
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Anomalies:
CET -1.5 E&W rain 85%
E&W sun 112% ©
Philip Eden 091213 |
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Forecast for December 2009: UNSETTLED EARLY
& LATE; COLDER DRIER EPISODE MID-MONTH |
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Taken
as a whole, December 2009 is forecast to have well below-average pressure,
but it |
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will
probably not be as relentlessly cyclonic as November has been. Winds from
between |
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south
and west will blow frequently, but there will probably also be short spells
of easterlies |
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and
northerlies, and a longer spell of rather cold weather is indicated for the
middle of the |
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month. Mild south-westerlies could well return
strongly during the last week of December. |
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Mean
maximum temperature is expected to be near or slightly above the long-term
average |
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in
the southern half of the UK, but rather below average in the northern half.
Coldest weather |
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is
most likely during the third week. Mean minimum temperature should be near or
slightly |
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above
average in eastern and southern regions, but somewhat below average in
western |
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and northern regions. Frosty nights will
probably occur with near or slightly above average |
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frequency, and severe frosts are most likely
around or just after mid-month. |
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Rainfall
is predicted to be above normal in southern, central and eastern parts of the
UK, |
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but
below normal in northwestern regions. The somewhat colder period mid-month
should |
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also be relatively dry, but this is the time
when snowfall is most likely. |
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Sunshine
will probably be above the long-term average in the western half of the UK,
but |
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near or slightly below normal in the eastern
half. |
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Anomalies:
CET 0.0 E&W rain 117%
E&W sun 100% ©
Philip Eden 091128 |
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Forecast for mid-Nov to mid-Dec 2009: UNSETTLED AND MILD AT
FIRST, LESS MILD EARLY-DEC |
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Winds
from a southerly quarter are expected to blow more frequently than usual
between |
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mid-November
and mid-December, resulting in well-above average temperature. This |
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southerly
dominance will probably be most marked during the next fortnight, whereas
in |
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early-December
brief northerly, easterly and anticyclonic episodes are likely to bring |
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occasional
colder days. Mean sea-level pressure over the next thirty days is predicted
to |
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be below or well-below normal, and as a
consequence there will probably be long periods |
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of unsettled weather with frequent and
occasionally heavy rain. |
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Both
mean maximum and mean minimum temperature for the period mid-November to |
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mid-December
are expected to be above or much above the long-term (1971-2000) |
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average. This warmth will be most apparent
during the second half of November, with |
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temperatures returning closer to normal
during the first half of December. |
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Rainfall
during the next thirty days is predicted to be above the long-term mean in
most |
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regions,
and well-above in all of southern England, Wales, northwest England,
Northern |
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Ireland,
and western Scotland. Northern Scotland may have rainfall near to or
somewhat |
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below
the average. Although occasional snowfalls are likely over northern hills,
little or no |
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snow can be expected at lower levels before
the second week of December. |
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Sunshine
duration is forecast to be near to or rather below the long-term average in
nearly |
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|
all
parts of the UK during the next four weeks.
Northern Scotland, however, may well |
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experience above-average sunshine hours during
this forecast period. |
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Anomalies:
CET +2.0 E&W rain 140%
E&W sun 90% ©
Philip Eden 091113 |
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Forecast for November 2009: RATHER COLD; UNSETTLED START BUT DRIER MID-
TO LATE-NOV |
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The opening days of November will be cyclonic,
with westerlies expected to take over by |
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the end of the first week. However, a change
to a less mobile regime is indicated for the |
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middle
and latter parts of the month, with anticyclonic, easterly and northerly
episodes. |
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|
Overall, W-ly and SW-ly winds are expected to
blow less frequently than is usual in Nov. |
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Although
some mild days are likely, especially during the first half of the month,
some |
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lengthy
spells of rather cold weather are also probable, especially from mid-month
onwards, |
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with several frosty nights. Taking the month
as a whole, mean maximum temperature is |
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forecast
to be somewhat below the 1971-2000 mean, and mean minimum temperature |
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also below the mean. |
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Although
there will be several wet days during the first week, the weather is likely
to become |
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mostly
dry for long periods during the middle and latter parts of November. Monthly
rainfall |
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|
aggregates
are predicted to be below normal in nearly all regions, but near normal
in |
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southwest
England and south Wales. Significant snowfall is possible later in the
month, |
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most likely in the last week. |
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Sunshine totals should be above or well above
the long-term mean in all parts of the UK. |
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Anomalies:
CET -1.3 E&W rain 92%
E&W sun 118% ©
Philip Eden 091029 |
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Forecast for mid-October to mid-November
2009: ALTERNATING CYCLONIC &
ANTICYCLONIC PERIODS |
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The
present anticyclonic spell is expected to give way gradually to rather more
cyclonic |
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|
conditions
during the remainder of October. High pressure may well return around the
turn |
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of the month, but a further cyclonic/southerly
episode can be expected during the first half |
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of November. |
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Mean
maximum temperature for the period mid-October to mid-November is expected
to |
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be
close to the long-period average over much of the UK, but slightly above in
southern |
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England
and south Wales. Mean minimum temperature is predicted to be near average
in |
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Scotland,
northern England and Northern Ireland, but slightly above in central and
southern |
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|
regions.
The northern half of the UK is expected to see a sharp contrast between
cold |
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|
weather
in late-October and much milder conditions during early-November.
Temperature |
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fluctuations in the southern half of the UK
should be comparatively small. |
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Rainfall
during the next 4 weeks is forecast to be above the long-term mean in all
regions. |
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|
The
bulk of the rain in southern parts of England and Wales will probably fall in
late-October, |
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|
but
northern and western regions are likely to get most of their rain during the
first two |
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weeks of November. |
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Sunshine
duration is predicted to be near to or rather below the long-term average in
nearly |
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|
all
parts of the UK. Northern and western
Scotland will probably be relatively sunny during |
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|
late-Oct, while southern, central and eastern
England will have more sunshine in early-Nov. |
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Anomalies:
CET +0.5 E&W rain 125%
E&W sun 90% ©
Philip Eden 091013 |
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Although
the weather is likely to become more changeable during the opening days
of |
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|
October,
there will probably be further anticyclonic spells during the course of the
month, |
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|
and
mean sea-level pressure is predicted to be 4 to 8 mbar above the long-term
average |
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|
over
the British Isles. Short-lived northerly, westerly and southerly spells can
also be |
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|
expected,
and there is a 40 per cent probability of a more significant northerly
outbreak |
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|
during the last week or so of October. |
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This northerly outbreak can be expected to
have a significant effect on mean monthly |
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|
temperatures. Taking the month as a whole,
both mean maximum and mean minimum |
|
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|
temperature
are predicted to be slightly below normal in eastern, central and
southern |
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|
regions,
and near normal in the north and west of Scotland, in northwest England and
north |
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|
Wales,
and in Northern Ireland. However, several short warm spells are likely to
occur |
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|
during the first three weeks. |
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Rainfall
is forecast to be below normal in most regions, although southeast
England, |
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|
southwest
England and south Wales should have near or slightly above average
rainfall – |
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|
these regions are most likely to have two or
three isolated large daily falls. |
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Sunshine
aggregates should be near average in most parts of the UK, but rather
above |
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|
average
in the north and west of Scotland, northwest England and north Wales,
and |
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Northern Ireland. |
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Forecast for mid-Sep to mid-Oct 2009: DRY REST OF SEPTEMBER, THEN MORE CHANGEABLE |
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The
mid-September to mid-October period is forecast to be dominated by
anticyclonic, |
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|
northwesterly
and southwesterly weather types. The
anticyclonic spells should be the more |
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|
dominant
of the three types during the remainder of September, but a vigorous
SW-ly |
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|
régime is indicated for several days during
early-October. |
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Mean
maximum temperature for the entire period should be above average in all
parts of |
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|
the
country, while mean minima should be close to or slightly above average.
There will be |
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|
several
rather warm days during the 2nd half of September and the first week of
October. |
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|
Night-time
temperatures are expected to fluctuate sharply with occasional air frosts
in |
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|
northern regions. |
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Rainfall
over the whole period should be above average in northern and western
Scotland, |
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|
near
average in northwest England, north Wales and Northern Ireland. All other
regions |
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|
should have below average rainfall, and in
East Anglia and Southeast England, much below. |
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Sunshine
totals for mid-September to mid-October are expected to be near to or
slightly |
|
|
|
above
average in most parts of the UK, but below average in the north and west of
Scotland |
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|
and Northern Ireland. |
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Anomalies:
CET +1.0 E&W rain 78%
E&W sun 112% ©
Philip Eden 090913 |
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Forecast for September 2009: LONG PERIODS OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXCEPT
IN THE NW |
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Mean
pressure during September is predicted to be 3 to 5 mbar above normal in
southern |
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|
Britain,
near normal over northern Britain, and below normal in the Norwegian Sea.
The |
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|
weather
over the southern and eastern parts of Britain is expected to be drier,
sunnier and |
|
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|
warmer
than average, although there will probably be occasional interruptions to the
fine |
|
|
|
conditions,
notably during the first week; there is also the possibility of a change to
a |
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|
cyclonic
type towards the very end of the month. Scotland and Northern Ireland
are |
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|
expected to have a generally rather changeable
month with frequent falls of rain. |
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Averaged
over the entire month, the mean maximum temperature is expected to be
above |
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|
the
long-term mean except in N and W Scotland where it should be near normal. The
mean |
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|
minimum
temperature should be above the long-term mean except in East Anglia,
the |
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|
Midlands,
southeast and southwest England where it is predicted to be near normal.
A |
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|
cooler period is indicated during the last week
of September. |
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September’s
rainfall is predicted to be above normal in the N and W of Scotland,
near |
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|
normal in other parts of Scotland, Northern
Ireland and NW England, and below normal in |
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|
eastern, central and southern England. Rain is
expected to occur regularly throughout the |
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|
month in northern and western parts of the UK,
while in southern and eastern regions the |
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|
bulk of September’s rain will probably come
around the 3rd/4th, and again in the final week. |
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Below-normal
totals are therefore likely in N and W Scotland, whereas eastern, central
and |
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|
southern
England should end up sunnier-than-average month with the highest
percentages |
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|
in East Anglia and the Southeast. |
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Anomalies:
CET +0.7 E&W rain 85%
E&W sun 115% ©
Philip Eden 090829 |
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Forecast for mid-Aug to mid-Sep 2009: DRY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST; SEVERAL WARM
DAYS |
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Alternating anticyclonic and cyclonic spells
are indicated for the next thirty days, but with the |
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|
anticyclonic
episodes becoming slightly more dominant. The mean flow over the British |
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|
Isles is expected to be SW-ly – that is, with
a bigger-than-normal southerly component. |
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There
will probably be two or three short spells of very warm weather during the
remainder |
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|
of
August, and cooler interludes are expected to be brief. The generally warm
conditions |
|
|
|
should
persist into the first half of September, but temperatures may well drop back
to the |
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|
seasonal norm or just below towards the middle
of September. |
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Much
of the period will be dry, with showers and thunderstorms occurring on a
relatively |
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|
small number of days, and the rain is expected
to fall rather sporadically. However, northern |
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|
and
western parts of Scotland are likely have more rain than other regions. Late
in the |
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|
period
less settled weather is expected to spread to all parts of the country,
bringing more |
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|
widespread falls of rain. |
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Sunshine
totals for mid-August to mid-September are expected to be above average
in |
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|
most parts of the UK, but near to or slightly
below average in the north and west of Scotland. |
|
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Anomalies:
CET +1.5 E&W rain 85%
E&W sun 120% ©
Philip Eden 090813 |
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Forecast for August 2009: MOSTLY CHANGEABLE; ONE OR TWO BRIEF WARM
SPELLS |
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Mean
monthly sea-level pressure is again predicted to be below normal over the
British Isles but by a smaller |
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|
amount
compared with July. Periods of unsettled weather with relatively low daytime
temperatures can |
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|
therefore
be expected, but there will probably also be a couple of short spells of very
warm weather with |
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|
associated thundery activity. One of these warm
spells is likely later in the first week. |
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Mean maximum temperature during August 2009 is
forecast to be slightly above the long-term average in all |
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|
parts
of the UK, with short spells of very warm weather largely offset by longer
periods of rather cool conditions. |
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|
Mean minimum temperature is likely to be above
the average, with warm nights outnumbering cool ones. |
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Rainfall
is forecast to be above normal in most parts of the country, with frequent
frontal rainfall during the |
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|
changeable
periods and some localised thundery downpours during the warm spells.
However, regional rainfall |
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|
in
East Anglia and Southeast England may be near to or slightly below the
long-term average although even |
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|
here thunderstorms will probably contribute to
scattered high monthly totals. |
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|
Sunshine
totals are predicted to range from near normal in East Anglia and Southeast
England to below |
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|
|
normal in all other regions. |
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|
Anomalies: CET
+0.5 degC E&W rain
110% E&W sun 95% |
© Philip Eden 090729 |
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Forecast for mid-July to mid-August 2009: CONTINUING UNSETTLED; COOL DAYS, WARM
NIGHTS |
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|
Cyclonic, westerly and southwesterly weather types are
expected to occur frequently during the next thirty |
|
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|
|
days,
maintaining the present period of changeable weather with generally subdued
daytime temperatures. |
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|
The most likely time for a short anticyclonic
interlude is in the first fortnight of August. |
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For
much of the forecast period, daytime temperatures are likely to be close to
or slightly below the long-term |
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|
|
average,
whereas night-time temperatures are expected to be close to or slightly above
the average. A few |
|
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|
|
warm
or very warm days will probably also occur in ones and twos, although a
slightly longer warm spell during |
|
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|
|
the
first half of August cannot be ruled out. Over the entire period, mean
temperature is predicted to be slightly |
|
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|
|
above the long-term average, entirely thanks to
the frequent rather warm nights. |
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Amounts
of rain for the period mid-July to mid-August are forecast to be above the
long-term average, except |
|
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|
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in
the north and west of Scotland. Broadly speaking, rather more rain is likely
to fall during the second half of |
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July compared with the first half of August,
but no extended dry period is likely. |
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Sunshine
totals are predicted to be near to or rather below the long-term average,
except in the north and west |
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of Scotland where they may be slightly above. |
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Anomalies: CET
0.0 degC E&W rain
145% E&W sun 85% |
© Philip Eden 090713 |
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