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Forecast for February 2012: VERY COLD START; FURTHER COLD SPELLS DURING REST OF MONTH

this month

A much more "blocked" pattern can be expected during February compared with the earlier

last month

part of the winter, and winds from southerly and easterly quarters are likely to blow more

frequently than usual. The first half of the month will probably be mainly anticyclonic,

earlier months

whereas the second half could well bring two or three short-lived cyclonic episodes.

flow indices

During February, both mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures are expected to

fluctuate widely, with a notably cold spell during the first week, while further cold snaps are

weather-uk

probable during the remainder of the month. Occasional very mild days may also be

expected, chiefly later in the month. Overall, both mean maximum and mean minimum

temperatures are predicted to range from slightly above the 1981-2010 average in northern

and western Scotland to slightly below the average in eastern, central and southern parts of

England. Night frosts are likely to occur with near-normal frequency; severe night frosts with

daytime temperatures close to zero can be expected during the first week.

Rainfall during February is forecast to be near or rather below normal in all parts of the UK,

with northern and western Scotland probably the driest parts of the country relative to their

respective regional averages. The frequency of snow will probably be rather below normal

in northern and western regions, but slightly above in the east and south.

Sunshine totals during February will probably range from above average in northern and

western Scotland to below in southeast England and East Anglia.

Anomalies: CET -1.0degC E&W rain 80% E&W sun 90% © Philip Eden 120129

Forecast for January 2012: MILD, CHANGEABLE, IN N & W; MAINLY DRY IN S & E

A generally westerly type is expected to prevail for much of January, with high pressure

persisting for long periods over Biscay/France and occasionally extending across southern

parts of the UK. These anticyclonic incursions are most likely during the third and fourth

weeks, and will probably bring the lowest temperatures of the month. The preponderance

of westerly winds is indicative of above-average rainfall in northern and western regions,

but there will probably be less rain than usual in the east and south of the country. Snow is

expected to fall less frequently than usual.

During January, both mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures are expected to

range from above or much above the 1981-2010 average in Scotland and Northern Ireland

to slightly above the average in southern England and south Wales. Night frosts can be

expected to occur less frequently than usual, though several frosty nights are likely in

southern districts during the second half of the month.

Rainfall during January is forecast to range from above or much above normal in northern

and western Scotland, northwest England, north Wales and Northern Ireland, to below

normal in eastern, midland, and southern counties of England.

Sunshine totals during January will probably range from somewhat below normal in northern

and western Scotland to rather above normal in eastern England.

Anomalies: CET +1.7degC E&W rain 80% E&W sun 103% © Philip Eden 111229

Forecast for December 2011: CHANGEABLE; MILD START & FINISH; COLDER SPELL THIRD WEEK

A cyclonic westerly or southwesterly type is expected to prevail for much of December,

bringing very unsettled weather with frequent fluctuations of temperature, although mild

days are expected to outnumber the cold ones. A spell of much colder weather, lasting five

to ten days, is most likely to occur between mid-month and Christmas, and some frost and

snow are likely during this episode. The unsettled regime is expected to resume late in the

month with higher temperatures.

Taking December as a whole, both mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures are

expected to range from rather below the long-term average in northern and northeastern

parts of the UK to slightly above the average in southern and southwestern regions.

Rainfall in December is expected to range from near average over much of eastern and

central England to above or much above the average in northern and western Scotland,

northwest England, north Wales and Northern Ireland. A drier interlude is likely in these

northern and western regions after mid-month, but this is the period when snow is most

likely in eastern, southern and central parts of the country.

Sunshine totals during December will probably range from near or somewhat below normal

in northern and western Scotland to above normal in eastern England.

Anomalies: CET 0.0 E&W rain 112% E&W sun 112% © Philip Eden 111128

Forecast for November 2011: MOSTLY DULL & WET; MILD IN THE S., RATHER COLD IN THE N.

November is expected to be dominated by lengthy cyclonic periods with only brief anti-

cyclonic interludes. These anticyclonic interludes are most likely towards mid-month and

again right at the end of the month, and during these episodes the weather is expected to

be dry and rather cold. For the bulk of the month, however, relatively mild but generally dull

and wet conditions are likely to prevail.

Taking November as a whole, mean maximum temperature is expected to range from

somewhat below normal in Scotland to rather above normal in central and southern parts of

England and Wales. Mean minimum temperature should range from near normal in

Scotland to above normal in central and southern districts. Night frosts will probably occur

slightly less frequently than usual, and are likely to be concentrated during the cold snaps

towards mid-month and at the month's end.

November rainfall totals are predicted to range from above or much above the long-term

average in most western and northern parts of the UK to near-average in East Anglia and

locally elsewhere in eastern England.

Sunshine totals during November are forecast to range from below or much below the

average in western districts to rather above average in northeast England.

Anomalies: CET +0.6 E&W rain 115% E&W sun 95% © Philip Eden 111029

Forecast for October 2011: RATHER WARM BUT UNSETTLED AND WET

There is a strong signal from the analogues for a cyclonic/southerly October, which would

bring frequent rain, and above-average temperatures especially at night. Output from

numerical models indicate that the present dry and warm spell will end around 3 October

(1 October in northern Britain), followed by a short spell of cold and unsettled weather.

The middle and latter parts of the month are likely to be generally disturbed but rather warm,

and any anticyclonic interludes will probably be short-lived.

Over the whole of October, mean maximum temperature is forecast to be rather above the

1971-2000 average, while mean minimum temperature is expected to be above or well

above the average. Overnight frosts will probably occur less frequently than usual, and are

most likely during the short cold snap at the end of Week 1 and beginning of Week 2.

Rainfall totals are forecast to be above normal in most regions, and well above in southwest

England and south Wales, and also Northern Ireland. Northern Scotland and East Anglia are

the only regions were rainfall may be close to (or marginally below) the long-term average.

October sunshine totals will probably be below or much below the 1971-2000 average in

most parts of the UK, although northern Scotland and East Anglia may have near-average

sunshine.

Anomalies: CET +1.7 E&W rain 120% E&W sun 90% © Philip Eden 110928

Forecast for September 2011: RATHER COOL; CYCLONIC FIRST HALF, MORE SETTLED LATER

The generally changeable and rather cool weather is expected to continue during

September. After an anticyclonic start, a much more cyclonic regime will probably take over

during the first week, lasting almost until mid-month, but a lengthy anticyclonic period can be

expected during the second half of September, although this, too, is likely to crumble

towards the month's end.

Taking the month as a whole, mean maximum temperature is predicted to be below the

1971-2000 average, while mean minimum temperature is forecast to be close to or slightly

below the long-term average.

Rainfall totals are predicted to range from slightly below average in southwest England and

south Wales to well above average in northern and eastern Scotland and northeast

England. Occasional days of heavy and widespread rain are possible, notably during the

second week.

September sunshine totals will probably be rather below the 1971-2000 average

in most parts of the UK – well below in northern and eastern Scotland – but should be near

average in southwest England and south Wales.

Anomalies: CET -0.5 E&W rain 115% E&W sun 90% © Philip Eden 110829

Forecast for August 2011: CHANGEABLE; A COOL MONTH WITH WARM START AND FINISH

Broadly speaking, August is likely to be another unsettled month with lengthy periods of

cyclonic weather, interrupted occasionally by short anticyclonic episodes. There will

probably be a few warm or very warm days, but, for the most part, daytime temperatures are

expected to be close to or slightly below the normal. There are also likely to be several

thundery days accompanied by heavy localised falls of rain.

Taking the month as a whole, mean maximum temperature is predicted to be close to the

1971-2000 average, while mean minimum temperature should be slightly above the

average (thanks to the many cloudy nights).

Rain can be expected to occur with above-average frequency, though there will probably

also be occasional short dry spells lasting four to seven days. During the cyclonic periods

occasional days of widespread rain are also likely, while some very heavy but localised

downpours will accompany the thundery activity. Overall, rainfall is predicted to be above

the long-term average, except in northern and western Scotland and Northern Ireland.

August sunshine totals will probably be rather below the 1971-2000 average over England

and Wales, but slightly above in northern and western Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Anomalies: CET +0.2 E&W rain 120% E&W sun 94% © Philip Eden 110728

Forecast for mid-Jul to mid-Aug 2011: MOSTLY CHANGEABLE; WARM SPELL TURN OF THE MONTH

The next thirty days are likely to be dominated by cyclonic and westerly weather types,

although one or two brief anticyclonic spells are probable, most likely towards the end of

July or around the turn of the month. Broadly speaking, then, the present period of

changeable weather with generally subdued daytime temperatures is expected to continue,

with only occasional days, probably coming in ones and twos, in the warm category.

Thus for much of the current forecast period, daytime temperatures are expected to be

close to or slightly below the long-term average, whereas night-time temperatures will

probably be close to or slightly above the average. A few warm or very warm days cannot

be ruled out, but no extended warm period is envisaged. Over the entire period, mean

temperature is predicted to be slightly above the long-term average, entirely thanks to the

frequent rather warm nights.

Amounts of rain for the period mid-July to mid-August are predicted to be above the long-

term average, except in northern Scotland. Broadly speaking, rather more rain is likely to fall

during the second half of July compared with the first half of August, but no extended dry

spell is indicated.

Sunshine totals are forecast to be near to or rather below the long-term average, except in

northern Scotland where they may be somewhat above the average.

Forecast for July 2011: CHANGEABLE; R.COOL AT TIMES FIRST HALF, RATHER WARMER LATER

Over the entire month of July, westerly winds are expected to blow rather more frequently

than usual, with mean sea-level pressure below the long-term average in northern parts of

the UK and close to the average in southern parts. Much of the month is likely to be rather

changeable with only occasional rather warm days, but during the last ten days of July there

is an increased chance of a spell of warm or very warm weather, albeit with a growing risk

of thunderstorms.

Daytime temperatures are forecast to be slightly below normal in most parts of the UK

during the first ten days, close to the average during the middle part, and rather above

average during the latter part. Night-time temperatures, overall, should not deviate much

from the long-term average, although occasional warm nights are probable towards the

end of the month.

Rain will occur frequently during the first half of the month, but generally in moderate

amounts. The second half of July should see below-average rainfall over England, Wales,

and eastern Scotland (apart from downpours associated with local thunderstorms), but

above average rainfall in northern and western regions. Looking at the whole of July, rainfall

totals are expected to range from rather above average in northern and western Scotland to

near or slightly below the average in southern and eastern parts of Britain.

Sunshine totals during July are forecast to be near or slightly above the long-term average

in most parts of the UK.

Anomalies: CET +0.2 E&W rain 93% E&W sun 102% © Philip Eden 110628

Forecast for mid-Jun to mid-Jul 2011: SHORT WARM SPELLS OTHERWISE RATHER COOL

With high pressure over the Arctic basin, the jet-stream over the Atlantic/Europe sector is

likely to be displaced southward from its normal position, bringing unsettled Atlantic weather

across the British Isles. A drop in pressure is likely in the Arctic in early-July resulting in a

gradual trend towards warmer and more settled conditions over the UK by mid-July.

Over the entire 30-day period, mean maximum temperature is forecast to be close to or

slightly below the 1971-2000 average in most regions, while mean minimum temperature is

likely to be rather above the long-term average. Although temperature levels are expected

to be somewhat below the long-term average for long periods, one or two short warm

spells are indicated, with perhaps a longer warm period towards mid-July.

Rainfall for the entire period is predicted to be rather above the 1971-2000 mean in most

parts of the UK with some heavy falls of rain especially in southwest England, Wales and

Northern Ireland.

Sunshine duration is predicted to be close to or slightly below the long-term average over

much of the country, but slightly above in northern and western Scotland and N. Ireland.

Anomalies: CET +0.2 E&W rain 115% E&W sun 93% © Philip Eden 110613

Forecast for June 2011: VERY WARM EARLY & LATE; COOLER CHANGEABLE SPELL MID-MONTH

A return of anticyclonic conditions is expected at times during June, with the focus of

blocking variously over the near-Atlantic, the Norwegian Sea, and Scandinavia. A less

settled period is indicated during the middle fortnight of the month.

Over the entire month of June, both mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures are

forecast to be rather above the 1971-2000 average. The first five to seven days are

predicted to be warm especially in western and northern districts, but a somewhat cooler

interlude is indicated mid-month, followed by a resumption of warmer weather during the

last week or so.

Rainfall is forecast to be below the long-term normal in most parts of the country, although

some western districts will probably have near-normal amounts of rain. The bulk of June's

rain will probably come during the middle segment of the month.

Sunshine duration is forecast to be above normal in most parts of the UK, except perhaps

in southwest England and south Wales. The sunniest weather can be expected during the

first and last weeks.

Anomalies: CET +1.5 E&W rain 88% E&W sun 112% © Philip Eden 110529

Forecast for mid-May to mid-June 2011: CHANGEABLE WITH FLUCTUATIING TEMPERATURES

After the present westerly spell blocking is expected to return as the dominant pattern for

the rest of the period, with the focus of blocking often over mid-Atlantic. As a consequence

there will probably be occasional cyclonic episodes when upper-air pattern favours a ridge

in mid-Atlantic and a trough over western Europe. This will result in isolated days of wide-

spread rain in an otherwise rather dry period. With anticyclonic and northerly types dominant

for the remainder of the time, temperatures are likely to fluctuate quite widely.

However, taking the 30-day period as a whole, both mean maximum and mean minimum

temperatures are forecast to be rather above the long-term average in all regions of the UK,

though the differences are likely to be quite small in N and E Scotland and NE England.

Rainfall for the entire period is predicted to be near to or slightly below the long-term

average in most regions. There will be a good deal of rain in northern and western Scotland

during the third week of May courtesy of the present spell of westerly winds. Over England

and Wales the bulk of the precipitation is likely to result from a few well-scattered days of

widespread rain.

Sunshine duration is predicted to range from slightly below the long-term average in

northern and eastern regions to slightly above average in the southwest.

Forecast for May 2011: WARM DRY START, OTHERWISE UNSETTLED WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE RAIN

Following nine weeks of predominately anticyclonic weather, May will probably bring a

reversion to a westerly and/or northwesterly regime with a cyclonic bias. After a rather warm

start, temperatures are expected to fluctuate sharply with the possibility of some markedly

colder episodes during the middle and latter parts of the month. Some heavy falls of rain

are also indicated during the course of May.

Taking the month as a whole, both mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures are

predicted to be rather above the 1971-2000 average. The first seven to ten days are

forecast to be rather warm, but some rather cold spells are indicated thereafter. Night

frosts are most probable around mid-month.

Rainfall is forecast to be above or much above the long-term average in most parts of the

UK, except perhaps northern and western Scotland. Some days of widespread and locally

heavy rain can be expected, though there will also be some drier episodes.

Sunshine duration is forecast to be near or somewhat below the average in most parts of

the UK, but may be above average in western and northern Scotland.

Anomalies: CET +0.7 E&W rain 125% E&W sun 90% © Philip Eden 110428

Forecast mid-Apr to mid-May 2011: WARM DRY LATE-APRIL; MUCH LESS SETTLED EARLY-MAY

There will be a paucity of westerly winds during the next 30 days. Instead, winds from the

south, east and north are likely to dominate, with southerlies occurring rather more

frequently than northerlies. Relatively high pressure will dominate for the first ten days or so,

but occasional cyclonic interludes can be expected thereafter, especially towards the

middle of May.

Over the next four weeks temperatures are expected to be above or well above the long

term average. There will, however, be one or two short-lived colder interludes, especially

during early-May. The contrast between very warm days and occasional cold nights which

was apparent during the last 30 days will become less evident during the next four weeks.

A few frosty nights are possible when high pressure lays over the country, skies are clear

and winds light, but overall the frequency of frost is forecast to be below normal.

Rainfall is predicted to be below the long-term average in eastern and northern parts of the

UK, but near or somewhat above average in southwest England, Wales, and Northern

Ireland. The trivial amounts of rain which have characterised the last six weeks over most of

England, Wales and eastern Scotland should come to an end during the last week of April

or the first week of May. One or two brief northerly outbreaks may bring snow showers,

chiefly to northern and eastern Scotland.

Sunshine duration is expected to be above the average in northern and eastern regions,

but near average elsewhere.

Anomalies: CET +2.0 E&W rain 90% E&W sun 112% © Philip Eden 110413

Forecast for April 2011: WARM FIRST HALF THEN COOLER; WET IN THE NW BUT DRY IN THE SE

April is likely to be less settled than March, although eastern regions of the UK, and

perhaps also parts of the Midlands and southern England, will probably again have below-

average rainfall. There is likely to be an alternation between southwesterlies and north-

westerlies especially during the first half of the month, while anticyclonic and cyclonic

biases are also expected to alternate during the course of April.

Over the entire month, both mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures are

predicted to be rather above the 1971-2000 average. The first ten days are likely to be

decidedly warm, but a couple of short colder spells are indicated during the middle and

latter parts of the month. Occasional sharp night frosts are most likely after mid-month.

Rainfall is expected to be above the long-term average in northern and western Scotland,

Northern Ireland, northwest England and north Wales, and one or two episodes of

prolonged orographic rain are indicated for southwest-facing slopes in these regions.

Elsewhere, monthly rainfall should be near to or somewhat below the average, with lowest

totals likely in eastern counties of England.

Sunshine duration is forecast to range from below normal in northern and western regions

of the UK to above normal in eastern England.

Forecast mid-Mar to mid-Apr 2011: DRY WARM START, THEN COLDER EPISODE, THEN WARMER

The present anticyclonic spell is expected to last for another week to ten days, but the

remainder of the period is likely to be rather changeable. A short cold spell is indicated

around the turn of the month but this northerly episode could be quite sharp with a risk of

snow chiefly for Scotland and northern England, before a somewhat warmer southerly or

southwesterly type returns during the first half of April.

Mean maximum temperature for the period mid-March to mid-April is predicted to be rather

above average in all parts of the UK, with moderately warm weather early and late in the

period more than offsetting the cold spell between. Mean minimum temperature will also be

above average, although only slightly so in most areas thanks to frequent cold nights early

in the period.

Rainfall during the next four weeks is predicted to be above average in western, central and

southern parts of the UK, but near to or rather below average in northern & eastern regions.

The bulk of the rain is expected to fall during the first half of April.

Sunshine duration is predicted to be near or slightly above average in the west and south,

but it should be clearly above average in the east and north.

Forecast for March 2011: DRY EXCEPT IN THE NW; COLD FIRST HALF, WARMER LATER

Pressure is expected to be above average during March except in northern Scotland, with

above average frequencies of both westerly and northerly winds. The first week should be

mostly anticyclonic with trivial amounts of rain and/or snow, but the highest probability of

significant snow will probably come during the second week. The second half of the month

is likely to be slightly less settled than the first half, and although temperatures will probably

fluctuate either side of the normal, there will probably be a preponderance of rather

mild/warm days after mid-month.

Over the entire month both mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures are expected

to be slightly above the 1971-2000 average. Night frosts are most likely during the first half

of March when some keen frosts (<–5°C) are possible, while warm days (>15°C) are most

likely during the second half of the month.

Rainfall should be below the long-term average in most parts of the UK, and much below

locally in southern England. However, occasional heavy orographic falls are possible in

northwestern districts, and in both northern and western Scotland rainfall is predicted to be

above the average.

Sunshine duration is forecast to range from below normal in northern and western Scotland

to above normal in eastern, central and southern regions of England, and also perhaps .

locally in eastern Scotland

Forecast mid-Feb to mid-Mar 2011: MILD PERIOD LATE-FEB; COLD N-LY SPELL EARLY-MARCH

The present rather cold, cyclonic regime is expected to give way to much milder SW-lies

around the 20th. This spell should last for about a week, with relatively high pressure on the

near-continent maintaining mostly dry conditions in southern, central and eastern parts of

the UK, although rain will fall frequently and sometimes heavily in the north and west. An

anticyclonic interlude is likely around the turn of the month, followed by a colder episode

lasting up to a week during the first half of March with northerly winds and some snow.

Mean maximum temperature for the period mid-February to mid-March is likely to be near to

or slightly above the 1971-2000 average in all parts of the UK. The distribution of mean

minimum temperature should be similar. The second half of February will probably be

milder, relatively speaking, than the first half of March.

Rainfall during the next four weeks is predicted to be near or rather above average in

northern and western parts of the UK, but generally below average in all other regions. The

second half of February is likely to be rather drier than the first half of March. Little or no

snow is indicated for the second half of February, but there may be significant and perhaps

widespread snowfalls during the cold episode in early-March.

Sunshine duration is expected to be near or somewhat above the long-term average in

most parts of the UK.

Forecast for February 2011: MILD, WET, WINDY TILL MID-MONTH, THEN MORE ANTICYCLONIC

Southwesterly and westerly winds are expected to dominate the first half of February, but a

further period of blocking is likely during the second half of the month. Unlike the earlier part

of the winter, however, the focus of blocking is expected to be over Europe, with a

substantial amount of cyclonic activity continuing over the North Atlantic region. As a

consequence, the first two weeks of February are expected to be generally mild, wet and

windy with a good deal of sunshine at times; the last fortnight is forecast to bring periods of

drier and quieter weather with variable temperatures.

Taking the month as a whole, both mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures are

predicted to be above the 1971-2000 average in all parts of the UK, but the first half of the

month is likely to be warmer than the second half, with overnight frosts largely confined to

the period from mid-month onwards. Broadly speaking, northern and western districts are

expected to be warmer, relative to long-term norms, than central and eastern districts.

Rainfall is forecast to be above the long-term average in western and northern parts of the

country, but near to or slightly below the average in some eastern and central areas. Much

of the rain is expected to come in the first half of Feb, with lengthy dry periods thereafter.

Sunshine duration is predicted to be close to or somewhat above the long-term average,

with scattered sunny days during the mobile phase, and groups of three or four sunny days

during the blocked phase.

Forecast for mid-Jan to mid-Feb 2011: DRY, R.COLD LATE-JAN, THEN LESS SETTLED BUT MILDER

The present spell of mild but unsettled weather is expected quickly to give way to a

somewhat colder and much more anticyclonic period lasting between one and two weeks

during the remainder January. A spell of cyclonic/southwesterly weather is likely to follow,

but a further anticyclonic episode may develop towards mid-February.

Mean maximum temperature for the period mid-January to mid-February is likely to be near

or slightly below average in all parts of the UK. The distribution of mean minimum temp-

erature should be similar. Temperatures are again expected to fluctuate either side of the

long-term average during the coming 30-day period.

Rainfall during the next four weeks is predicted to be near or rather above average in

northern and western parts of the UK, but generally below average in all other regions. The

second half of January is predicted to be rather drier than the first half of February.

Sunshine is expected to be above average generally, but near or slightly below average in

some parts of southern and central England.

Forecast for January 2011: COLD FIRST 10 DAYS, THEN MILDER PERIODS

It was almost impossible to match the exceptional synoptic characteristics of December.

There were eight years when circulation patterns bore some resemblance to those of the

last month, but that resemblance was limited. As a consequence, confidence in the details

of this forecast is low. However, NWP models do cautiously indicate the development of a

cyclonic/southwesterly type after the first week to ten days, and six of the eight analogue

months foreshadowed much milder and more unsettled Januarys, so this forms the basis

of this particular forecast.

Both mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures are predicted to be close to or

slightly above the long-term average, with the milder episodes during the middle and latter

parts of January offsetting likely colder spells during the first week and late in the month.

Positive temperature anomalies are more likely in the southern half of the UK rather than

in the northern half.

Rainfall is forecast to be above the 1971-2000 average in western, central and southern

parts of the country, but near to the average in some eastern and northern districts. The

opening week will probably be mostly dry, but an unsettled regime after the 10th is

expected to bring frequent substantial falls of rain, with some orographically-enhanced falls

likely over western slopes. Significant snowfalls are most likely in Scotland, Northern Ireland

and northern England during the colder spells.

Sunshine duration is again predicted to be near to or rather below the long-term average in

western and southern parts of the UK, but above average in some eastern districts.