climate-uk

Not The Long-Range Forecast

Actual and forecast charts can be found here

Text Box: Forecast for May 2009: WARM EARLY AND LATE; COOL SPELL MID-MONTH

The main feature of May’s circulation is again expected to be a shortage of westerly winds. After a warm start, a lengthy cool spell is indicated for the middle part of the month with frequent northerly and easterly winds. There is some indication that the end of the month may be warmer again, but unsettled with several wet days.

Overall, mean maximum temperature is predicted to be close to or slightly above the long-term (1971-2000) average, while mean minimum temperature should be close to or slightly below the average. The first week and last week should be mostly warm, but a cooler period lasting one to two weeks is indicated for the second and third weeks and during this period night frosts can be expected in many parts of the country.

Rainfall is expected to above normal in southern parts of England and Wales, with most of the rain here falling during the second half of the May. All other parts of the UK are likely to have a generally dry month, with the largest shortfalls in the north and west of Scotland.

Sunshine totals are forecast to range from near normal in eastern, central and southern districts, to above normal in western and northern parts of the country.

Anomalies: CET 0.0 degC E&W rain 100% E&W sun 100% (c) Philip Eden 090428

Text Box: Forecast for mid-April to mid-May 2009: MOSTLY WARM; ALTERNATING WET AND DRY SPELLS

The period mid-April to mid-May is again expected to be characterised by a reduced frequency of westerly winds, with easterlies and southerlies blowing rather more often than usual. The forecast period is also likely to display an alternation between anticyclonic and cyclonic biases.

Overall, both mean maximum and mean minimum temperature are expected to be above the long-term (1971-2000) average. Broadly, this will be achieved by a predominance of rather warm weather, with only occasional days with below-average temperature. The exception to this broad picture is that the frequency of easterly winds will hold temperatures close to the average in eastern England and eastern Scotland.

Rainfall is predicted to be close to (perhaps locally above) the long-term normal in southern England and south Wales, but generally below normal in most other regions. Most of the rain will come during the short cyclonic episodes and there should be lengthy dry interludes. Some of the cyclonic spells are also likely to be thundery.

Sunshine totals are forecast to range from near to or rather below the 1971-2000 average in eastern Scotland and eastern England, to above average in most western regions, and much above in western Scotland.

Anomalies: CET +1.0 degC E&W rain 90% E&W sun 105% (c) Philip Eden 090413

Text Box: Forecast for April 2009: WARM SPELLS, MOSTLY DRY

The relevant analogues provide a strong signal for blocking during April, with winds from a westerly quarter – approaching their lowest climatological frequency of the year in April – expected to blow even less frequently than usual. The month is expected to comprise short episodes of anticyclonic, cyclonic, southerly, easterly and northerly types.

Overall, mean maximum temperature is predicted to be above the long-term (1971-2000) average, while mean minimum temperature should be near to or slightly above the average. The first week will be notably warm, and further warm spells are likely especially late in the month. Occasional rather cold days are most likely around mid-month.

Rainfall is expected to be generally below normal in most parts of the UK with long periods of dry weather. However, one or two individual days with widespread heavy rain may have a disproportionate effect on the monthly totals in some areas, most likely in southern and central parts of England and Wales.

Sunshine totals are forecast to range from near normal in eastern Scotland and eastern England to somewhat above average in western parts of Britain and in Northern Ireland.

Anomalies: CET +1.3 degC E&W rain 80% E&W sun 110% (c) Philip Eden 090329

Text Box: Forecast for mid-Feb to mid-Mar 2009: DRY LATE-FEB; COLD EARLY-MARCH

The second half of February is expected to bring two or three brief northwesterly and/or northerly outbreaks separated by anticyclonic interludes. Easterly or northerly winds is expected to bring a cold period lasting a week to ten days during the first half of March.

Rather cold and rather mild spells are expected to alternate during the next four weeks, with the cold spells perhaps rather more dominant. As a consequence over the whole forecast period temperatures are expected to be slightly below the mean for the standard reference period 1971-2000 in most parts of the UK with the biggest deficit most likely in eastern Scotland, eastern England and the Midlands.

Rainfall is expected to be below the long-term average in most parts of the UK, although rainfall totals may be close to normal in the north and east of Scotland, and also in southwest England and south Wales. Further snowfalls can be expected, although snow on the ground is not likely to last more than a few days except in upland regions. Early-March will be rather wetter than late-Feb.

Sunshine duration is predicted to be close to or slightly below the 1971-2000 average in all parts of the UK.

Anomalies: CET -0.3 degC E&W rain 78% E&W sun 88% (c) Philip Eden 090213

Text Box: Forecast for February 2009: VERY COLD EARLY AND LATE; MILDER MID-MONTH; MOSTLY WET

Much of February will probably see low pressure close to the British Isles with frequent southeasterly, southerly, and southwesterly winds. This will bring an alternation of cold and mild spells, but with a fundamentally unsettled theme. An anticyclonic period is indicated for late in the month bringing cold but dry weather to England and Wales, but temperatures in Scotland and Northern Ireland may not drop below normal for more than a few days.

Severely cold weather during the opening days of the month will be short-lived, and broadly speaking cold and mild periods should roughly balance each other out. Mean monthly temperature, therefore, should not be far from the long-term (1971-2000) mean – near to or slightly above in southwest England, rather below in northern and eastern districts.

Rainfall, including melted snow, is predicted to be above the long-term normal over England, Wales, and Northern Ireland, but below normal in Scotland, especially in the north and west. The bulk of the month’s rain is expected to fall during the first three weeks of the month with a drier period likely thereafter. Some significant snowfall can be expected during the opening days, and on one or two occasions around mid-month, but extended periods with snow on the ground are not likely.

Sunshine duration should be below normal in most parts of the country, with the probable exception of western and northern Scotland.

Anomalies: CET -0.5 degC E&W rain 120% E&W sun 80% (c) Philip Eden 090129

Text Box: Forecast mid-Jan to mid-Feb 2009: UNSETTLED AND QUITE MILD AT FIRST; COLD SPELL LATER

Cyclonic, southwesterly and southeasterly types are expected to prevail for much of the next thirty days. There is a high probability of a further spell of very cold easterly or southeasterly winds around or just after the turn of the month, but milder and more unsettled weather should resume later in the forecast period.

Temperatures are expected to fluctuate either side of the long-term average, and over the whole forecast period are expected to be close to or slightly below the long-term (1971-2000) mean. The tabulated temperatures are calculated on the basis of a modest mid-period cold snap, but if a more severe spell should materialise, mean monthly temperatures may be lower by 1.0 to 1.5 degC.

Rainfall is expected to be above or much above average in southern and western regions of the UK, with the heaviest orographic falls of rain in southwest England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Rainfall should be near or slightly below normal in northern and eastern Scotland and northeast England.

Sunshine duration is likely to be below the long-term average in most regions, but above average in northern Scotland.

Anomalies: CET -0.5 degC E&W rain 130% E&W sun 80% (c) Philip Eden 090113

Text Box: Forecast for January 2009: GENERALLY COLD AND DRY; MILDER INTERLUDE MID-MONTH

Cold and dry weather is expected to be more prominent during January 2008 than for many years, with periods of anticyclonic, easterly and northerly weather types. However, there will be some interludes of milder, changeable weather, notably mid-month, although these are not expected to last long.

The milder interludes will probably not be sufficient to offset the longer periods of cold weather, and therefore both mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures are predicted to be below the 1971-2000 normal in all parts of the UK. The deficit will probably be largest in southern England and the Midlands, and smallest in the north and west of Scotland. During the colder periods, frost is expected to occur nightly, and will probably be severe at times, while daytime temperatures may remain near or below zero locally. By contrast the temperature should exceed 10°C widely during the short-lived milder episodes.

Rainfall, including melted snow, is forecast to range from near-normal in southwest England and south Wales, to below normal in all other parts of the UK. Some snowfalls are indicated, perhaps most likely in southern districts, but the bulk of the month’s precipitation is expected to come during the milder spells.

Sunshine duration is predicted to range from somewhat below normal in eastern districts to somewhat above in western Britain and Northern Ireland.

Anomalies: CET -1.7 degC E&W rain 82% E&W sun 93% (c) Philip Eden 081229

Text Box: Forecast for mid-Nov to mid-Dec 2008: ALTERNATING MILD AND COLD EPISODES; MOSTLY DRY

An “episodic” 30 days is predicted, with frequent changes of weather type. Two or three brief northerly outbreaks are likely during the second half of November, but an anticyclonic/southeasterly spell lasting a week to ten days is expected later on, probably in early to mid-December.

Both mean max and mean min temperature for the period mid-Nov to mid-Dec are predicted to be slightly above average in all parts of the UK. The present mild spell will give way to colder weather during the next few days, but this cold spell is not likely to last long. Further short cold snaps are likely during the rest of Nov. During the anticyclonic episode in December highest temperatures should occur in western and northern regions, while occasional short-lived incursions of cold continental air are probable in the east and south.

Rainfall is expected to be slightly above average in the western half of the UK, and near to or slightly below average in the eastern half. East Anglia and the Southeast are likely to record a significant deficit.

Sunshine is likely to be rather above average in many parts of the country, although the west of Scotland, Northern Ireland, and southwest England may well end up with totals close to the long-term average.

Anomalies: CET +0.9 degC E&W rain 88% E&W sun 115% (c) Philip Eden 081113

Text Box: Forecast for November 2008: MILD START, THEN OFTEN COLD WITH LONG DRY PERIODS

The main features of the circulation in November are expected to be a below-average frequency of westerly winds, and an above-average frequency of high pressure systems. This should produce a generally dry month with sharply fluctuating temperature.

The late-Oct cold spell is expected to give way during the opening days of Nov, followed by about a week of generally mild weather. A colder spell is indicated around mid-month, and there will be further alternations between warm and cold during the remainder of the month. Overall, both mean max and mean min temp are forecast to be close to the long-term average, with the warm and cold spells effectively balancing each other.

With mean monthly pressure predicted to be higher than normal, dry weather is likely to predominate in most regions of the UK. There will be occasional wet days, but, taking the month as a whole, rainfall is forecast to be below or much below the long-term mean except in East Anglia.

Sunshine duration is likely to be near or rather below normal in eastern and central regions of the UK, but above in western and southern districts.

Anomalies: CET -0.2 degC E&W rain 82% E&W sun 105% (c) Philip Eden 081029

Text Box: Forecast for mid-Sep to mid-Oct 2008: MOSTLY DRY, VARIABLE TEMPERATURES

Anticyclonic and easterly weather types will last for the next ten days or so, but rather less settled conditions are likely around the turn of the month with cyclonic and southerly episodes. A further anticyclonic spell can be expected during the first half of October.

Mean maximum temperature is predicted to be rather above normal during the period mid-September to mid-October, with the largest excesses in western parts of the UK. Mean minimum temperature will probably be close to or slightly below the long-term average with several rather cold nights.

The next thirty days will bring a preponderance of dry weather, but there will also be occasional heavy downpours, sometimes associated with thunderstorms, in southern regions, especially southwest England and south Wales. Heavy falls are most likely during the last few days of September and the first week of October. Over the entire period, rainfall is forecast to range from near normal in southwest England and south Wales to below normal in all other regions.

Sunshine duration is predicted to be near normal in southern, central and eastern regions, but somewhat above normal in northern and western parts of the UK.

Anomalies: CET +0.5 degC E&W rain 72% E&W sun 105% (c) Philip Eden 080914

Text Box: Forecast for mid-Jul to mid-Aug 2008: WARM SPELL MID-PERIOD, OTHERWISE UNSETTLED

A spell of anticyclonic weather lasting 5-10 days is indicated for the last few days of July and the opening days of August bringing a period of fair and warm weather, but the first half of August will probably see a return of a cyclonic/westerly pattern which will mean a resumption of changeable and rather cool weather with frequent rain and a shortage of sunshine.

Mean max temp is predicted to be near normal during the period mid-July to mid-August. For much of the period daytime temperatures will be close to or below normal, but this should be offset by a warmer spell mid-period. Mean min temp is forecast to be somewhat above the long-term average with several warm nights.

The first and last weeks of the forecast period are expected to bring frequent falls of rain. The middle of the period will be generally dry, but with localised thundery downpours. Overall, rainfall is predicted to be near to or rather below the long-term mean in most parts of the UK, but above in north and west Scotland.

Sunshine is forecast to be below average in most parts of the country, but near normal in East Anglia and Southeast England. Several sunny days in the middle of the period will be offset by persistently cloudy weather early and late.

Anomalies: CET +0.8 degC E&W rain 82% E&W sun 90% (c) Philip Eden 080713

Text Box: Forecast for July 2008: UNSETTLED, HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES; WARMER LATER IN THE MONTH

The predicted sea-level pressure chart for July 2008 shows below-normal pressure over the British Isles with the main low centre located to the west of Ireland. Winds from a westerly quarter will probably blow rather less frequently than usual. The weather is expected to be unsettled for much of the time, although two or three short warm spells are indicated with high humidity and a risk of thunderstorms. Broadly speaking, the second half of the month should be noticeably warmer than the first half.

Over the entire month, mean maximum temperature is forecast to be near normal, with the short-lived warm spells offsetting lengthy periods with slightly below-normal temperature. However, mean minimum temperature is predicted to be consistently above the long-term average.

Rain is expected to fall more frequently than usual, and several days of widespread heavy rain are indicated. There will also be some thundery days when very heavy falls over small areas are likely. Overall, monthly rainfall is forecast to be above or much above normal in most parts of the UK, but below normal in northern and western Scotland.

Sunshine totals are expected to be generally below the average for the standard reference period 1971-2000, but are likely to be above average in the north and west of Scotland.

Anomalies: CET +1.2 degC E&W rain 122% E&W sun 87% (c) Philip Eden 080628

Text Box: Forecast for mid-May to mid-June 2008: DRY AND SUNNY IN THE NORTH & WEST; RATHER WARM

The next four weeks are expected to be characterised by persistent blocking, but variations in the location of the block will result in sharp contrasts in the weather over the British Isles: the forecast period will probably contain northerly, easterly, southerly, anticyclonic and cyclonic episodes. A tendency towards anticyclonic types in the second half of May is likely, whereas cyclonic types are more likely during the first of June.

In spite of cool spells during the third week of May and again in early June, the warmer periods are likely to outweigh the cooler ones. As a result, mean max temp should be above the 1971-2000 mean in all parts of the UK, and especially in western districts, while North Sea coasts will probably have the smallest excess. Mean min temp should be close to the long-term average. There may be a hot spell towards mid-June.

Occasional very wet days can be expected in late-May / early-June, while localised downpours associated with thundery activity mayoccur more frequently than usual during the warm periods, especially in southern districts. Overall, therefore, rainfall is expected to range from near average in S England, S Wales, the Midlands and E Anglia, to below normal over much of Scotland, Northern Ireland, NW England and N Wales.

Sunshine duration is predicted to be above the long-term average in most parts of the UK; the smallest excesses will probably be in eastern, central and southern England while parts of western Scotland, Northern Ireland and northwest England are likely to be sunniest.

Anomalies: CET +0.6 degC E&W rain 85% E&W sun 108% (c) Philip Eden 080513

Text Box: Forecast for May 2008: WARM WITH DRY PERIODS

Winds from a south-westerly quarter are forecast to blow rather more frequently than is normal during May, resulting in a warmer-than-average month especially in central and eastern areas. Although quite changeable overall, it should be somewhat drier and sunnier than usual in most eastern and southern parts of the UK.

Both mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures are expected to range from above normal in eastern and southern England and the Midlands, to near normal in most of Scotland and Northern Ireland. The warmth is likely to be consistent but relatively modest, and any episodes of very warm weather will probably be short-lived. Scattered cold days (and nights) are most likely during the middle segment of the month.

Rainfall is forecast to range from somewhat below average in eastern, central and southern England and eastern Scotland, to above average in northern and western Scotland, northwest England and north Wales, and Northern Ireland. Some parts of western Scotland may have much-above average rainfall.

Sunshine totals are expected to range from below normal in northern and western regions of the UK to somewhat above normal in eastern and southern regions.

Anomalies: CET +2.0 degC E&W rain 85% E&W sun 108% (c) Philip Eden 080428

Text Box: Forecast for mid-April to mid-May 2008:

Easterly and cyclonic weather types will occur frequently during the next 4 weeks, so the weather during the mid-April to mid-May period in southern, central and eastern parts of the UK is likely to be unsettled with frequent rain and a shortage of sunshine; occasional anticyclonic episodes are also likely. North and west Scotland and Northern Ireland, by contrast, are expected to be drier and sunnier than normal.

Warm and cold spells are expected to alternate. Mean max temp is forecast to range from below normal in east and central England to above in W Scotland, while mean min temp should be near normal in all regions.

Rain is expected to fall frequently in southern, central and eastern parts of England, and in southern districts especially there could be one or two very wet days. By contrast, some lengthy dry spells are possible in northern and western Scotland. Over the entire forecast period rainfall is expected to range from above or much above normal in southern parts of England and Wales, to below or much below in western Scotland.

Sunshine duration is predicted to range from below the long-term average in southern, central and eastern parts of England to above average in northern and western Scotland.

Anomalies: CET -0.2 degC E&W rain 120% E&W sun 85% (c) Philip Eden 080414