climate-uk

Not The Long-Range Forecast

Actual and forecast charts can be found here

Forecast for August 2010:    MOSTLY DRY; SOME WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS

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High pressure is expected to be close to the UK for long periods during August, but with

this month

highest pressure often to the west of the British Isles temperatures are likely to vary either

side of the long-term average. There will probably be short periods when highest pressure

last month

settles over (or even to the east of) the UK and these are likely to be associated with short

warm spells. Broadly speaking, August is likely to be a dry month; much of the rain in the

earlier months

southern half of the country will probably come from sporadic thundery outbreaks, whereas

in the northern half much of the rain is likely to be brought by occasional W-ly interventions.

flow indices

Mean maximum temperature is predicted to be slightly above the 1971-2000 average, while

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mean minimum temperature will probably be near to or slightly below the average. Several

warm days are indicated for the second week,  while cold nights are most likely during the

final week.

Rainfall is predicted to be rather below the 1971-2000 average in most parts of the UK,

although occasional spells of unsettled and rather wet weather can be expected in northern

and western Scotland and in Northern Ireland. Over England and Wales, the dominant

contributor is likely to be thundery activity, and as usual in such situations monthly totals may

be very variable geographically, but the broad regional totals for the month should fall short

of the norm.

Sunshine duration is forecast to range from near or slightly below average in northern and

western Scotland, to somewhat above average in all other regions.

Anomalies:   CET  +0.2   E&W rain   65%    E&W sun  115%                                        © Philip Eden 100729

Forecast for mid-July to mid-Aug:    CHANGEABLE WITH AVERAGE DAYS & WARM NIGHTS

The main characteristic of the weather over the next four weeks is likely to be a continuation

of the generally changeable conditions with temperatures close to the long-term average.

One or two brief anticyclonic episodes can also be expected, most likely during the last

week of July and the first week of August.

Mean maximum temperature is expected to be near normal during the period mid-July to

mid-August. For much of the time, daytime temperatures will be close to or rather below

normal, but this should be offset by one or two short warm spells around the middle of the

forecast period. Mean minimum temperature is predicted to be slightly above the seasonal

average in most parts of the country, and occasional notably warm nights are indicated.

The first and last weeks of the mid-July to mid-August period are forecast to bring frequent

rain, heavy in places. The middle fortnight should be somewhat drier, though thundery

outbreaks with associated heavy localised showers are possible. Taking the 30-day period

as a whole, rainfall is predicted to be near to or slightly above the long-term mean in most

parts of the UK, but well above in northern and western Scotland.

Sunshine is forecast to be below average in most parts of the country, but near normal in

East Anglia and Southeast England. Occasional groupings of sunny days in the middle two

weeks will be counterbalanced by cloudier weather during the first and last weeks.

Anomalies:   CET  +0.7   E&W rain  110%    E&W sun  90%                                        © Philip Eden 100713

Forecast for July 2010:   WARM START THEN COOLER. WET IN THE WEST & NORTH.

The present spell of generally warm and rather humid conditions is expected to last until

mid-month, although the weather will be rather more changeable than it was during the

second half of June, especially in northern and western regions where some heavy falls of

rain can be expected. Any rain in the South and East during the first half of July is likely to

be of a sporadic, thundery character. The second half of July is forecast to be generally

cooler and changeable with occasional outbreaks of rain in all regions, and any warm days

are likely to occur in ones and twos.

Both mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures are predicted to be above the

1971-2000 average, but this excess will be largely due to the warm weather during the first

half (especially the first ten days). Temperatures during the second half of July should be

much closer to the long-term average.

Rainfall is forecast to be above the 1971-2000 average in northern and western regions of

the UK, and close to the average in eastern and southern regions where most of the

month's rain can be expected from mid-month onwards.

Sunshine duration is predicted to range from below the long-term average in northern and

western regions to near to or slightly above the average in East Anglia and SE England.

Anomalies:   CET  +1.0   E&W rain  115%    E&W sun  95%                                        © Philip Eden 100628

Forecast for mid-June to mid-July:    COOL AT FIRST THEN WARMER; LONG DRY PERIODS

Anticyclonic conditions are expected to dominate the next 30 days, and although

interruptions to the general regime are likely they will probably be short-lived. Winds from a

northerly quarter are predicted for the first ten days of the forecast period; thereafter wind

direction will probably be more variable, with occasional days of W-ly and S-ly winds.

Both mean maximum and mean minimum temperature for the entire period mid-June to

mid-July is predicted to be close to the 1971-2000 average over eastern and central parts

of the UK, but somewhat above the average in western parts of Britain and in Northern

Ireland. The first ten days of the period are likely to be generally rather cool especially in

eastern districts, but the middle and latter parts of the forecast period should bring some

warmer days.

Rainfall during the next four weeks is expected to be below the long-term average over

much of the UK. However, much of the rain that does come is likely to be convective in

nature (showers and thunderstorms) resulting in some very heavy but very localised falls on

individual days.

Sunshine duration is predicted to range near average in eastern and central districts to

above average in western regions. The first ten days of  the forecast period will be cloudy

at times in eastern and southeastern England.

Anomalies:   CET  +0.5   E&W rain  75%    E&W sun  105%                                        © Philip Eden 100613

Forecast for June 2010:   MOSTLY WARM, DRY AND SUNNY; RATHER UNSETTLED 2ND/3RD WEEKS

June's weather is expected to be dominated by high pressure systems, bringing periods of

dry, sunny and warm weather, although there will be several short interruptions when

conditions become cooler with occasional thundery downpours. The most likely time for a

less settled period is during the second (and perhaps also third) week. Warmest weather

may well occur during the last week.

Both mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures are predicted to be above the

1971-2000 average. Some cooler days are indicated during the second (and perhaps third)

week, while the first and fourth weeks should be generally warm.

Rainfall is forecast to be generally below the long-term average, taking the country as a

whole, but with large geographical variations as is typical during a thundery month.  The

number of days with rain is likely to be below average.

Sunshine duration is expected to be above the long-term average in month parts of the UK,

and much above in some southern districts.

Anomalies:   CET  +1.6   E&W rain  78%    E&W sun  122%                                        © Philip Eden 100529

Forecast for mid-May to mid-June:    VARIABLE TEMPERATURES;  THUNDERY DOWNPOURS

Cyclonic and anticyclonic periods are expected to alternate during the next thirty days, but

the cyclonic spells are likely to be dominant while the anticyclonic interludes will probably

be short-lived. As a consequence, the weather will be unsettled and thundery at times with

variable temperatures. A significant warm period is indicated during the second half of May,

but the first half of June is likely to be cooler relative to the long-term average. There is also

some indication that settled weather may become established towards mid-June.

Mean maximum temperature for the period mid-May to mid-June is predicted to be close to

the 1971-2000 average over most of the UK, although northern and western Scotland will

probably be rather warm. Mean minimum temperature is expected to be near or rather

above average in all regions, and night frosts will probably occur relatively rarely.

Rainfall during the next four weeks is forecast to be above normal in western, central and

southern regions, but near or rather below normal in northern and eastern Scotland and in

northeast England. However, the number of days with rain is likely to be lower than usual,

with the bulk of the precipitation coming in a small number of heavy thundery downpours.

Sunshine duration is predicted to range from slightly above normal in northern and eastern

regions, to slightly below in southwest England, Wales, and Northern Ireland.

Anomalies:   CET  +0.4   E&W rain  120%    E&W sun  100%                                        © Philip Eden 100513

Forecast for May 2010:   COLD EARLY AND MID-MONTH; WARMER LATER; RATHER WET

Northerly and northeasterly winds are expected to blow frequently during the early and

middle parts of the month, but late-May should bring a change to southerlies and south-

westerlies. Anticyclonic and cyclonic biases should be roughly in balance, taking the month

as a whole.

Both mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures are predicted to be slightly below

the long-term average, with a warm spell towards the end of the month failing to outweigh

the persistently rather cold weather during early- and mid-May. Several night frosts can be

expected during this period, even in southern districts.

Rainfall is forecast to be above the long-term average in many parts of the UK, especially in

southern England and south Wales, but a shortfall is indicated for northern and western

Scotland. The second half of the month will probably be wetter than the first half. At least

one out-of-season snowfall can be expected, most likely in upland parts of northern Britain.

Sunshine duration is likely to be somewhat above the long-term average in most regions,

but rather below the average in some eastern parts of both Scotland and England.

Anomalies:   CET  -0.7   E&W rain  118%    E&W sun  98%                                        © Philip Eden 100428

Forecast for mid-April to mid-May 2010:   WARM THEN COLDER; BECOMING CHANGEABLE

The present anticyclonic regime is expected to continue for a further week to ten days,

followed by a southerly regime which will bring warm but rather more changeable conditions

around the turn of the month and during the first week of May. There is a 60% probability of

a significant northerly outbreak towards the end of the forecast period (i.e. mid-May).

Although the next few days will be rather cold, the bulk of the forecast period is expected to

be consistently warm, before cold weather returns towards the middle of May. The lengthy

warm spell will more than offset the cold start and finish, and both mean maximum and

mean minimum temperatures are expected to be above the long-term average, taking the

period as a whole.

Rainfall (including snowfall) during the period mid-April to mid-May is predicted to be above

the long-term average over England and Wales, and near average in Scotland and Northern

Ireland. The present dry spell will probably continue until the last few days of April, and

consequently most of the rain is forecast to fall during the first two weeks of May.

Sunshine totals for 30-day period are likely to be above the long-term average in all regions

of the UK.

Anomalies:   CET  +1.3   E&W rain  116%    E&W sun  120%                                        © Philip Eden 100414

Forecast for April 2010:   UNSETTLED EARLY AND LATE;  QUIETER SPELL MID-MONTH

April is expected to be an episodic month, with disturbed, mostly cyclonic conditions early

and late, but there should be an extended anticyclonic period during the middle part of the

month.

Both mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures are predicted to be close to or

slightly above the long-term average. Occasional rather cold days (with respect to the

mean) are most likely during the first half of the month, while rather warm days are more

likely during the second half. Wide day-to-day fluctuations are possible.

Rainfall is forecast to be close to the 1971-2000 mean in most western and southern

districts, but markedly above the mean in some northern and eastern parts of the UK. The

bulk of the rain will probably fall during the first and last weeks.

Sunshine duration is likely to somewhat above the long-term average in most regions, but

near to or slightly below the average in northern and eastern Scotland and northeast

England.

Forecast for mid-Mar to mid-Apr 2010:  WARM EARLY AND LATE; WINTRY SNAP TURN OF MONTH

Although Atlantic weather types will probably return for short periods during the coming four

weeks, there are also likely to be further spells of northerly and easterly winds. Overall, the

forecast period is expected to be rather changeable with frequent rain (though often in small

amounts), and with temperatures fluctuating either side of the long-term average. A short

wintry episode is most likely to occur around the turn of the month.

Both mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures are predicted to be close to the

long-term average in all parts of the UK. Warm and cold spells will probably alternate, with

the coldest weather indicated for the very end of March and/or the opening days of April.

Rainfall (including snowfall) during the period mid-March to mid-April is predicted to be

close to the 1971-2000 average in western, central and southern parts of the UK, but may

be rather below the average in northern and eastern regions.

Sunshine totals for 30-day period are forecast to be near to or slightly above the long-term

average in most parts of the country.

Anomalies:   CET  0.0   E&W rain  90%    E&W sun  105%                                        © Philip Eden 100313

Forecast for March 2010:   COLD FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH, BUT DRY AND SUNNY IN THE WEST

March is predicted to be a mostly ‘blocked’ month with winds from an easterly quarter

blowing more frequently than usual. Westerlies will probably be conspicuous by their

absence, although they may return for a time late in the month. Although occasional cyclonic

episodes can be expected, much of the period is likely to be anticyclonic.

Both mean maximum and mean minimum temperature are forecast to be below or much

below the long-term average. Night frost, severe at times, is forecast to occur more

frequently than usual. There will probably be one or two milder intervals, but these are likely

to be short-lived.

Rainfall (including melted snow) is expected to be below or much below the long-term

average in most regions of the UK, but near to or somewhat above the average in southern

England and south Wales. Further significant snowfall is likely in many parts of the country,

although the advancing season suggests that snow on the ground is unlikely to be long-

lived except in upland areas.

Sunshine duration is predicted to range from near or somewhat below normal in eastern

districts to above or well above average in western parts of the country.

Anomalies:   CET  -1.8   E&W rain  95%    E&W sun  105%                                        © Philip Eden 100226

Forecast for mid-Feb to mid-Mar 2010:   OFTEN RATHER COLD; WET LATE-FEB; DRY EARLY-MAR

Further occasional northerly and/or easterly outbreaks are expected during the next four

weeks, maintaining the generally rather cold weather. Cyclonic types will dominate during

the remainder of February, but a trend back towards anticyclonic conditions is indicated

during the first half of March.

Mean daytime maximum temperature is predicted to be rather below the long-term average

in most parts of the UK, although some northern and western districts will probably end up

close to the normal. The distribution of mean overnight minimum temperature will be similar.

Although this forecast period is predicted to be persistently rather cold, a return of the

prolonged intense cold (as in December and January) is not indicated. The best chance of

a few mild days is during the last week of February, and again towards the middle of March.

Rainfall (including snowfall) during the period mid-February to mid-March is predicted to be

below normal in most parts of the UK, but near to or rather above normal in some southern

parts of England and Wales. The bulk of the rain (and snow) will probably come during the

second half of February, with generally drier conditions pertaining during the first half of

March.

Sunshine totals for 30-day period are forecast to be near average in most parts of the UK,

but rather below average in eastern and central parts of both Scotland and England.

Anomalies:   CET  -0.8   E&W rain  92%    E&W sun  83%                                        © Philip Eden 100213

Forecast for February 2010:     COLD AT TIMES TILL AFTER MID-MONTH THEN WARMER

Easterly and southerly types are expected to dominate for much of February, bringing

periods of cold weather separated by brief milder interludes. If anything, the cold periods

are most likely during the early and middle parts of the month, while occasional milder days

are more probable towards the end of the month. Lengthy dry spells can be expected,

although occasional heavy falls of rain/snow are indicated, chiefly in the west and south.

Both mean maximum and mean minimum temperature are forecast to be below the long-

term mean. Night frost is likely to occur frequently, especially during the first three weeks,

and may be severe at times, but the cold weather is not expected to be as severe nor as

long-lasting as the early-January spell. Occasional milder days can be expected at any time

during the month, but a significantly milder spell is most likely during the last week.

Rainfall (including melted snow) is predicted to be somewhat below the 1971-2000 mean in

most parts of the country, with the greatest deficits likely in northern and central districts.

Precipitation totals will probably be near to or somewhat above the average in some

southern and western parts of the UK.

Sunshine will probably be above the long-term average in most parts of the UK, though it

will be close to the average in some eastern and southern areas. The largest excess is

indicated for northern Scotland.

Anomalies:   CET  -1.6   E&W rain  80%    E&W sun  110%                                        © Philip Eden 100129

Forecast for mid-Jan to mid-Feb 2010:  VARIABLE & RATHER COLD; WINTRY AT TURN OF MONTH

The present spell of milder but rather changeable weather is expected to give way to a

colder period lasting between 5 and 10 days around the turn of the month. A further brief .

spell of cyclonic/southerly weather is likely to follow, but a lengthy anticyclonic period during

the first half of February should bring drier conditions to all regions.

Mean maximum temperature for the period mid-January to mid-February is likely to be near

or slightly below average in all parts of the UK. The distribution of mean minimum

temperature should be similar. Temperatures are expected to fluctuate widely during the

coming 30-day period with some cold or very cold days mid-period, but a recurrence of the

exceptionally cold and wintry weather of early-January is not indicated.

Rainfall during the next four weeks is predicted to be near or rather above average in the

southern half of the UK, but generally below average in other regions. Broadly speaking, the

second half of January will probably be wetter than the first half of February.

Sunshine is expected to be above average generally, but near or slightly below average

in some parts of southern and central England.

Anomalies:   CET  -0.5   E&W rain  105%    E&W sun  100%                                        © Philip Eden 100113

Forecast for January 2010:     COLD WINTRY FIRST HALF; MILDER SPELL LATER

A long cold spell is indicated for the first half of the month, and although pressure is

expected to be quite high for much of this period, further snow is likely at times in many

parts of the country. A milder episode is probable during the second half of January

although cold weather may well return at the month’s end.

Both mean maximum and mean minimum temperature are forecast to be below the long-

term mean. The first half is likely to be significantly colder than the second half with frequent

and often severe overnight frosts, while daytime temperatures will probably remain close to

or below zero over a wide area on some days. After mid-month, the temperature is

expected to fluctuate widely, with some very mild days and nights, but also the likelihood of

cold weather returning around the end of the month.

Rainfall (including melted snow) is predicted to be somewhat below the 1971-2000 mean in

most parts of the country, with the greatest deficits likely in western Scotland and northwest

England. Scattered locations in eastern and southern England will probably have rainfall

close to or slightly above the average. Further substantial snowfall is indicated during the

first two weeks, and perhaps again at the end of the month.

Sunshine will probably be above the long-term average in most parts of the UK, though it

will be close to the average in some eastern and southern districts. Greatest excesses are

likely to occur in the west and north of Scotland.

Anomalies:   CET  -2.2   E&W rain  90%    E&W sun  120%                                        © Philip Eden 091229

Forecast for mid-Dec  to mid-Jan 2009-10: OFTEN VERY COLD, BUT MILDER AROUND CHRISTMAS

The present cold spell is expected to intensify for about a week before relaxing, and there

will probably be a period of mild and unsettled weather during the last week of December,

perhaps lasting into the opening days of January. The first half of January is expected to

bring an anticyclonic spell with an easterly or northerly bias, resulting in a return of cold,

wintry weather for a time.

Temperatures are expected to fluctuate sharply during the next four weeks as mild SW-lies

alternate with colder easterlies and northerlies, and the coldest weather is most likely to

occur during the third week of December and again in early-January.  Taking the 30-day

period as a whole, both mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures are predicted to

be generally below normal, the deficit greatest in southern and central England, and least in

the north and west of Scotland.

Rainfall during the next thirty days is predicted to be generally below normal, except in

southern England and south Wales where it will probably be close to or somewhat above

the long-term average. Significant snowfalls are likely during the cold episodes: most likely

in the third week of December and rather less likely in early-January.

Sunshine duration is expected to range from near normal in eastern districts to above

normal (locally much above) in western parts of the country.

Anomalies:   CET  -1.5   E&W rain  85%    E&W sun  112%                                        © Philip Eden 091213

Forecast for December 2009: UNSETTLED EARLY & LATE; COLDER DRIER EPISODE MID-MONTH

Taken as a whole, December 2009 is forecast to have well below-average pressure, but it

will probably not be as relentlessly cyclonic as November has been. Winds from between

south and west will blow frequently, but there will probably also be short spells of easterlies

and northerlies, and a longer spell of rather cold weather is indicated for the middle of the

month. Mild south-westerlies could well return strongly during the last week of December.

Mean maximum temperature is expected to be near or slightly above the long-term average

in the southern half of the UK, but rather below average in the northern half. Coldest weather

is most likely during the third week. Mean minimum temperature should be near or slightly

above average in eastern and southern regions, but somewhat below average in western

and northern regions. Frosty nights will probably occur with near or slightly above average

frequency, and severe frosts are most likely around or just after mid-month.

Rainfall is predicted to be above normal in southern, central and eastern parts of the UK,

but below normal in northwestern regions. The somewhat colder period mid-month should

also be relatively dry, but this is the time when snowfall is most likely.

Sunshine will probably be above the long-term average in the western half of the UK, but

near or slightly below normal in the eastern half.

Anomalies:   CET  0.0   E&W rain  117%    E&W sun  100%                                        © Philip Eden 091128

Forecast for mid-Nov  to mid-Dec 2009: UNSETTLED AND MILD AT FIRST, LESS MILD EARLY-DEC

Winds from a southerly quarter are expected to blow more frequently than usual between

mid-November and mid-December, resulting in well-above average temperature. This

southerly dominance will probably be most marked during the next fortnight, whereas in

early-December brief northerly, easterly and anticyclonic episodes are likely to bring

occasional colder days. Mean sea-level pressure over the next thirty days is predicted to

be below or well-below normal, and as a consequence there will probably be long periods

of unsettled weather with frequent and occasionally heavy rain.

Both mean maximum and mean minimum temperature for the period mid-November to

mid-December are expected to be above or much above the long-term (1971-2000)

average. This warmth will be most apparent during the second half of November, with

temperatures returning closer to normal during the first half of December.

Rainfall during the next thirty days is predicted to be above the long-term mean in most

regions, and well-above in all of southern England, Wales, northwest England, Northern

Ireland, and western Scotland. Northern Scotland may have rainfall near to or somewhat

below the average. Although occasional snowfalls are likely over northern hills, little or no

snow can be expected at lower levels before the second week of December.

Sunshine duration is forecast to be near to or rather below the long-term average in nearly

all parts of the UK during the next four weeks.  Northern Scotland, however, may well

experience above-average sunshine hours during this forecast period.

Anomalies:   CET  +2.0   E&W rain  140%    E&W sun  90%                                        © Philip Eden 091113

Forecast for November 2009:  RATHER COLD; UNSETTLED START BUT DRIER MID- TO LATE-NOV

The opening days of November will be cyclonic, with westerlies expected to take over by

the end of the first week. However, a change to a less mobile regime is indicated for the

middle and latter parts of the month, with anticyclonic, easterly and northerly episodes.

Overall, W-ly and SW-ly winds are expected to blow less frequently than is usual in Nov.

Although some mild days are likely, especially during the first half of the month, some

lengthy spells of rather cold weather are also probable, especially from mid-month onwards,

with several frosty nights. Taking the month as a whole, mean maximum temperature is

forecast to be somewhat below the 1971-2000 mean, and mean minimum temperature

also below the mean.

Although there will be several wet days during the first week, the weather is likely to become

mostly dry for long periods during the middle and latter parts of November. Monthly rainfall

aggregates are predicted to be below normal in nearly all regions, but near normal in

southwest England and south Wales. Significant snowfall is possible later in the month,

most likely in the last week.

Sunshine totals should be above or well above the long-term mean in all parts of the UK.

Anomalies:   CET  -1.3   E&W rain  92%    E&W sun  118%                                        © Philip Eden 091029

Forecast for mid-October to mid-November 2009:   ALTERNATING CYCLONIC & ANTICYCLONIC PERIODS

The present anticyclonic spell is expected to give way gradually to rather more cyclonic

conditions during the remainder of October. High pressure may well return around the turn

of the month, but a further cyclonic/southerly episode can be expected during the first half

of November.

Mean maximum temperature for the period mid-October to mid-November is expected to

be close to the long-period average over much of the UK, but slightly above in southern

England and south Wales. Mean minimum temperature is predicted to be near average in

Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland, but slightly above in central and southern

regions. The northern half of the UK is expected to see a sharp contrast between cold

weather in late-October and much milder conditions during early-November. Temperature

fluctuations in the southern half of the UK should be comparatively small.

Rainfall during the next 4 weeks is forecast to be above the long-term mean in all regions.

The bulk of the rain in southern parts of England and Wales will probably fall in late-October,

but northern and western regions are likely to get most of their rain during the first two

weeks of November.

Sunshine duration is predicted to be near to or rather below the long-term average in nearly

all parts of the UK.  Northern and western Scotland will probably be relatively sunny during

late-Oct, while southern, central and eastern England will have more sunshine in early-Nov.

Anomalies:   CET  +0.5   E&W rain  125%    E&W sun  90%                                        © Philip Eden 091013

Although the weather is likely to become more changeable during the opening days of

October, there will probably be further anticyclonic spells during the course of the month,

and mean sea-level pressure is predicted to be 4 to 8 mbar above the long-term average

over the British Isles. Short-lived northerly, westerly and southerly spells can also be

expected, and there is a 40 per cent probability of a more significant northerly outbreak

during the last week or so of October.

This northerly outbreak can be expected to have a significant effect on mean monthly

temperatures. Taking the month as a whole, both mean maximum and mean minimum

temperature are predicted to be slightly below normal in eastern, central and southern

regions, and near normal in the north and west of Scotland, in northwest England and north

Wales, and in Northern Ireland. However, several short warm spells are likely to occur

during the first three weeks.

Rainfall is forecast to be below normal in most regions, although southeast England,

southwest England and south Wales should have near or slightly above average rainfall  –

these regions are most likely to have two or three isolated large daily falls.

Sunshine aggregates should be near average in most parts of the UK, but rather above

average in the north and west of Scotland, northwest England and north Wales, and

Northern Ireland.

Forecast for mid-Sep to mid-Oct 2009:  DRY REST OF SEPTEMBER, THEN MORE CHANGEABLE

The mid-September to mid-October period is forecast to be dominated by anticyclonic,

northwesterly and southwesterly weather types.  The anticyclonic spells should be the more

dominant of the three types during the remainder of September, but a vigorous SW-ly

régime is indicated for several days during early-October.

Mean maximum temperature for the entire period should be above average in all parts of

the country, while mean minima should be close to or slightly above average. There will be

several rather warm days during the 2nd half of September and the first week of October.

Night-time temperatures are expected to fluctuate sharply with occasional air frosts in

northern regions.

Rainfall over the whole period should be above average in northern and western Scotland,

near average in northwest England, north Wales and Northern Ireland. All other regions

should have below average rainfall, and in East Anglia and Southeast England, much below.

Sunshine totals for mid-September to mid-October are expected to be near to or slightly

above average in most parts of the UK, but below average in the north and west of Scotland

and Northern Ireland.

Anomalies:   CET  +1.0   E&W rain  78%    E&W sun  112%                                        © Philip Eden 090913

Forecast for September 2009:  LONG PERIODS OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXCEPT IN THE NW

Mean pressure during September is predicted to be 3 to 5 mbar above normal in southern

Britain, near normal over northern Britain, and below normal in the Norwegian Sea. The

weather over the southern and eastern parts of Britain is expected to be drier, sunnier and

warmer than average, although there will probably be occasional interruptions to the fine

conditions, notably during the first week; there is also the possibility of a change to a

cyclonic type towards the very end of the month. Scotland and Northern Ireland are

expected to have a generally rather changeable month with frequent falls of rain.

Averaged over the entire month, the mean maximum temperature is expected to be above

the long-term mean except in N and W Scotland where it should be near normal. The mean

minimum temperature should be above the long-term mean except in East Anglia, the

Midlands, southeast and southwest England where it is predicted to be near normal. A

cooler period is indicated during the last week of September.

September’s rainfall is predicted to be above normal in the N and W of Scotland, near

normal in other parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland and NW England, and below normal in

eastern, central and southern England. Rain is expected to occur regularly throughout the

month in northern and western parts of the UK, while in southern and eastern regions the

bulk of September’s rain will probably come around the 3rd/4th, and again in the final week.

Below-normal totals are therefore likely in N and W Scotland, whereas eastern, central and

southern England should end up sunnier-than-average month with the highest percentages

in East Anglia and the Southeast.

Anomalies:   CET  +0.7   E&W rain  85%    E&W sun  115%                                        © Philip Eden 090829

Forecast for mid-Aug to mid-Sep 2009:  DRY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST; SEVERAL WARM DAYS

Alternating anticyclonic and cyclonic spells are indicated for the next thirty days, but with the

anticyclonic episodes becoming slightly more dominant. The mean flow over the British

Isles is expected to be SW-ly – that is, with a bigger-than-normal southerly component.

There will probably be two or three short spells of very warm weather during the remainder

of August, and cooler interludes are expected to be brief. The generally warm conditions

should persist into the first half of September, but temperatures may well drop back to the

seasonal norm or just below towards the middle of September.

Much of the period will be dry, with showers and thunderstorms occurring on a relatively

small number of days, and the rain is expected to fall rather sporadically. However, northern

and western parts of Scotland are likely have more rain than other regions. Late in the

period less settled weather is expected to spread to all parts of the country, bringing more

widespread falls of rain.

Sunshine totals for mid-August to mid-September are expected to be above average in

most parts of the UK, but near to or slightly below average in the north and west of Scotland.

Anomalies:   CET  +1.5   E&W rain  85%    E&W sun  120%                                        © Philip Eden 090813

Forecast for August 2009:  MOSTLY CHANGEABLE; ONE OR TWO BRIEF WARM SPELLS

Mean monthly sea-level pressure is again predicted to be below normal over the British Isles but by a smaller

amount compared with July. Periods of unsettled weather with relatively low daytime temperatures can

therefore be expected, but there will probably also be a couple of short spells of very warm weather with

associated thundery activity. One of these warm spells is likely later in the first week.

Mean maximum temperature during August 2009 is forecast to be slightly above the long-term average in all

parts of the UK, with short spells of very warm weather largely offset by longer periods of rather cool conditions.

Mean minimum temperature is likely to be above the average, with warm nights outnumbering cool ones.

Rainfall is forecast to be above normal in most parts of the country, with frequent frontal rainfall during the

changeable periods and some localised thundery downpours during the warm spells. However, regional rainfall

in East Anglia and Southeast England may be near to or slightly below the long-term average although even

here thunderstorms will probably contribute to scattered high monthly totals.

Sunshine totals are predicted to range from near normal in East Anglia and Southeast England to below

normal in all other regions.

Anomalies:    CET  +0.5 degC   E&W rain 110%   E&W sun 95%

© Philip Eden 090729

Forecast for mid-July to mid-August 2009:  CONTINUING UNSETTLED; COOL DAYS, WARM NIGHTS

Cyclonic, westerly and southwesterly weather types are expected to occur frequently during the next thirty

days, maintaining the present period of changeable weather with generally subdued daytime temperatures.

The most likely time for a short anticyclonic interlude is in the first fortnight of August.

For much of the forecast period, daytime temperatures are likely to be close to or slightly below the long-term

average, whereas night-time temperatures are expected to be close to or slightly above the average. A few

warm or very warm days will probably also occur in ones and twos, although a slightly longer warm spell during

the first half of August cannot be ruled out. Over the entire period, mean temperature is predicted to be slightly

above the long-term average, entirely thanks to the frequent rather warm nights.

Amounts of rain for the period mid-July to mid-August are forecast to be above the long-term average, except

in the north and west of Scotland. Broadly speaking, rather more rain is likely to fall during the second half of

July compared with the first half of August, but no extended dry period is likely.

Sunshine totals are predicted to be near to or rather below the long-term average, except in the north and west

of Scotland where they may be slightly above.

Anomalies:   CET  0.0 degC   E&W rain 145%   E&W sun 85%

© Philip Eden 090713